The Times, 26th January.
Today David Davis presented the government’s legislation for triggering Article 50 to Parliament.
Fortunately for the government, the Supreme Court judgement did not specify what form the legislation must take. So it is very, very tightly worded. In fact strip out the guff it amounts to 23 words: “The Prime Minister may notify, under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union, the United Kingdom’s intention to withdraw from the EU.”That’s it. Today the bill got its first reading: the short title of the Bill (the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act) was read out in the House of Commons followed by an order for it to be printed.
The meat comes on Tuesday, when the Bill will have its second reading in the Commons. This will include a solid few hours’ worth of debate, followed by a more debate and vote on Wednesday.
After second reading, the bill proceeds to committee stage – which is usually where MPs work through the minute details of legislation. In this case, there won’t be that many details to comb through. But it is also the main opportunity for opposition parties to put amendments. Today a number of MPs reacted with anger after it was confirmed that this stage will be allocated just three days.The government then hopes to be through the report stage and third reading and have the Bill signed off by the Commons on 9th February – which is when Parliament rises for a short recess. On its return, the 20th February, the Bill can then begin its passage through the Lords.
On the red benches the arithmetic is more interesting. The government has no majority, and in any case the Conservatives are less inclined towards loyalty. There are just over 100 Liberal Democrat peers committed to a second referendum and plenty of Labour MPs who think their party should be adopting a similarly pugnacious stance. Then there are the 178 crossbenchers, hidebound by no party loyalty and among them plenty of passionate Europhiles.
Ministers are happy to give peers a few weeks to debate the Bill if it assuages their desire for scrutiny – although that may force Mrs May into triggering Article 50 in mid or late-March, when some had thought she hoped to do so before the European Council summit on March 8th. Ultimately, though, the unelected upper chamber will be persuaded of the dangers of vetoing the outcome of a massive democratic exercise.
It may not be the route she wanted to take, but the prime minister will meet her deadline.